The story of a prophecy: the damascene “Legend of the astrakhan elders” in the context of Arab-Russian encounters in the 18th century

In the second half of the 18th century, the initial diplomatic and military-political contacts emerged between the Arab world and Russia, in addition to the pre-existing inter-religious ties. It is commonly accepted that religious relations and interactions along the secular line were parallel processes that exhibited a degree of intersection with each other. Recently discovered documents in Russian archives refute this theory. Nevertheless, rationale behind the decision of several Middle Eastern rulers and their Arab-Christian advisers to form a fatal military alliance with Russia in the early 1770s remains opaque. In order to shed further light on the matter, the author of the article turns to a document that has not previously been subjected to in-depth historical analysis: “The Legend of the Astrakhan Elders”, a prophecy recorded by the Damascus chronicler Mikhail Brayk (d. 1781). The author examines the text of the purported prophecy that is alleged to have originated in Astrakhan, Russia, and made its way to Jerusalem in 1758. He analyses the prerequisites for its appearance and the social background that made this revelation relevant to the inhabitants of Syria. Furthermore, he identifies its alleged author, demonstrates the literary and manipulative psychological techniques used by him; dissects the internal structure of the document, and suggests a hypothesis about the influence of this prophecy on subsequent political decisions of Middle Eastern leaders.