The impact of research and development on the economies of countries of the world: A statistical analysis

Cover Page

Cite item

Full Text

Open Access Open Access
Restricted Access Access granted
Restricted Access Subscription Access

Abstract

Effective management of national science and research is on the constant rise, so the task of revealing how economic “return” from the research and development sector can be maximized is becoming more and more relevant. The article examines the mutual influence of the development of science and the funding of research and development in 97 countries around the world, on the one hand, and their national per capita incomes, on the other hand. A wide range of indicators is used, including patent activity, research and development expenditures, the number of researchers and the number of Scopus-indexed publications by subject area (relative to the population of countries). Among all the subject areas studied, the number of publications in economics is most closely related to the level of GDP per capita (PPP). We then use linear multiple regression to study the relation between the number of Scopus-indexed publications in economics and expenditures on research and development. A comparison of simulated data with real data shows that oil and gas producing countries (including Russia) demonstrate an economic level higher than expected. The leading world economies (USA, China, Japan, Germany, France, Great Britain) are well described by our resulting model. Ensuring high expenditure on research and development is of paramount importance for modern economic growth. In addition, an overall high level of publication activity is important, with particular attention to the development of research in economics.

Full Text

Restricted Access

About the authors

M. S. Varenik

Lomonosov Moscow State University

Author for correspondence.
Email: msvarenik@anspa.ru

Advanced School of Public Administration

Russian Federation, Moscow

References

  1. Голиченко О. (2017). Государственная политика и провалы инновационной системы // Вопросы экономики. № 2. С. 97–108. [Golichenko O. (2017). State policy and failures of the innovation system. Voprosy Ekonomiki, 2, 97–108 (in Russian).]
  2. Заварухин В. П., Соломенцева О.А, Солопова М. А., Чинаева Т. И. и др. (2021а). Показатели развития российской и мировой науки: сравнительный анализ: аналитико-статистический сборник. Вып. 3. 200 с. М.: Институт проблем развития науки (ИПРАН) РАН. doi: 10.37437/9785912941689-21-sb4 [Zavarukhin V. P., Solomentseva O. A., Solopova M. A., Chinaeva T. I. et al. (2021a). Indicators of the development of Russian and world science: comparative analysis: analytical and statistical collection, 3. Moscow: Institute for the Study of Science (ISS RAS) RAS. doi: 10.37437/9785912941689-21-sb4 (in Russian).]
  3. Заварухин В. П., Соломенцева О.А, Чинаева Т. И., Солопова М. А. (2021б). Сравнительный анализ основных показателей, характеризующих развитие научной сферы стран мира и России // Инновации. № 12 (278). С. 3–11. [Zavarukhin V. P., Solomentseva O. A., Chinaeva T. I., Solopova M. A. (2021b). Comparative analysis of the main indicators characterizing the development of the scientific sphere of the countries of the world and Russia. Innovations, 12, 278, 3–11 (in Russian).]
  4. Макаров В. Л., Айвазян А. А., Афанасьев А. А., Бахтизин А. Р., Нанавян А. М. (2016). Моделирование развития экономики региона и эффективность пространства инноваций // Форсайт. Т. 10. № 3. С. 79–90. [Makarov V. L., Ayvazyan A. A., Afanasyev A. A., Bakhtizin A. R., Nanavyan A. M. (2016). Modeling the development of the regional economy and the efficiency of the innovation space. Foresight, 10, 3, 79–90 (in Russian).]
  5. Макаров В. Л., Айвазян С. А., Афанасьев М. Ю., Бахтизин А. Р., Нанавян А. М. (2014). Оценка эффективности регионов РФ с учетом интеллектуального капитала, характеристик готовности к инновациям, уровня благосостояния и качества жизни // Экономика региона. № 4. С. 9–30. [Makarov V. L., Ayvazyan S. A., Afanasyev M. Yu., Bakhtizin A. R., Nanavyan A. M. (2014). Assessing the effectiveness of regions of the Russian Federation taking into account intellectual capital, characteristics of readiness for innovation, the level of well-being and quality of life of the population. Economics of Region, 4, 9–30 (in Russian).]
  6. Макаров В. Л., Бахтизин А. Р., Логинов Е. Л. (2022). Применение экономико-математических методов и моделей оптимального планирования в цифровой экономике будущего. М.: ЦЭМИ РАН. [Makarov V. L., Bakhtizin A. R., Loginov E. L. (2022). Application of economic and mathematical methods and models of optimal planning in the digital economy of the future. Moscow: CEMI RAS (in Russian).]
  7. Унтура Г. А., Канева М. А., Заболотский А. А. (2019). Влияние науки, инноваций и концентрации производства на экономический рост регионов России // Национальные интересы: приоритеты и безопасность. Т. 15. № . 12. С. 2327–2343. [Untura G. A., Kaneva M. A., Zabolotsky A. A. (2019). The influence of science, innovation and production concentration on the economic growth of Russian regions. National Interests: Priorities and Security, 15, 12, 2327–2343 (in Russian).]
  8. Черных С. И., Фролова Н. Д., Байбулатова Д. В. и др. (2020). Зарубежный опыт финансирования исследований и разработок и возможности его применения в России. М.: Институт проблем развития науки (ИПРАН) РАН. doi: 10.37437/9785912941511-20-m5 [Chernykh S. I., Frolova N. D., Baybulatova D. V. et al. (2020). Foreign experience in financing research and development and the possibility of its application in Russia. Moscow: Institute for the Study of Science (ISS RAS) RAS. doi: 10.37437/9785912941511-20-m5 (in Russian).]
  9. Acs Z. J., Audretsch D. B., Feldman M. P. (1994). R&D spillovers and recipient firm size. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 76, 2, 336–340.
  10. Aghion P., Harris C., Howitt P., Vickers J. (2001). Competition, imitation and growth with step-by-step innovation. The Review of Economic Studies, 68, 3, 467–492.
  11. Aghion P., Howitt P. (1992). A model of growth through creative destruction. Econometrica, 60, 2, 323–351.
  12. Audretsch D. B., Feldman M. P. (1996). R&D spillovers and the geography of innovation and production. The American Economic Review, 86, 3, 630–640.
  13. Bahar D., Hausmann R., Hidalgo C. A. (2014). Neighbors and the evolution of the comparative advantage of nations: Evidence of international knowledge diffusion? Journal of International Economics, 92, 1, 111–123.
  14. Bahar D., Rapoport H. (2018). Migration, knowledge diffusion and the comparative advantage of nations. The Economic Journal, 128, 612, F273–F305.
  15. Barro R. J., Sala-i-Martin X. (1995). Economic Growth. N.Y.: McGraw-Hill.
  16. Bloom N., Draca M., Reenen J. van (2016). Trade induced technical change? The impact of Chinese imports on innovation, IT and productivity. The Review of Economic Studies, 83, 1, 87–117.
  17. Cai M., Cui R., Li D. (2023). Trade with innovation benefits: A re-appraisal using micro data from China. Journal of Asian Economics, 89, 101664.
  18. Coe D. T., Helpman E. (1995). International R&D spillovers. European Economic Review, 39, 5, 859–887.
  19. Coe D. T., Helpman E., Hoffmaister A. W. (2009). International R&D spillovers and institutions. European Economic Review, 53, 7, 723–741.
  20. Engelbrecht H. J. (1997). International R&D spillovers, human capital and productivity in OECD economies: An empirical investigation. European Economic Review, 41, 8, 1479–1488.
  21. Fagerberg J., Verspagen B., Caniels M. (1997). Technology, growth and unemployment across European regions. Regional Studies, 31, 5, 457–466.
  22. Frantzen D. (2000). R&D, human capital and international technology spillovers: A cross‐country analysis. Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 102, 1, 57–75.
  23. Grinin L., Korotayev A. (2015). Great divergence and great convergence. A global perspective. Moscow: Springer International Publishing.
  24. Grossman G. M., Helpman E. (1991). Trade, knowledge spillovers, and growth. European Economic Review, 35, 2–3, 517–526.
  25. Hall B. H., Mairesse J., Mohnen P. (2010). Measuring the Returns to R&D. Handbook of the Economics of Innovation. North-Holland, 2, 1033–1082.
  26. Jaffe A. B. (1989). Real effects of academic research. The American Economic Review, 79, 5, 957–970.
  27. Jones C. I. (1995). R&D-based models of economic growth. Journal of Political Economy, 103, 4, 759–784.
  28. Kaneva M., Untura G. (2019). The impact of R&D and knowledge spillovers on the economic growth of Russian regions. Growth and Change, 50, 1, 301–334.
  29. Keller W. (2004). International technology diffusion. Journal of Economic Literature, 42, 3, 752–782.
  30. Korotayev A., Zinkina J. (2014). On the structure of the present-day convergence. Campus-Wide Information Systems, 31, 2/3, 139–152.
  31. Marrocu E., Paci R., Usai S. (2013). Proximity, networking and knowledge production in Europe: What lessons for innovation policy. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 80, 8, 1484–1498.
  32. Nair M., Pradhan R. P., Arvin M. B. (2020). Endogenous dynamics between R&D, ICT and economic growth: Empirical evidence from the OECD countries. Technology in Society, 62, 101315.
  33. Rodríguez-Pose A., Crescenzi R. (2008). Research and development, spillovers, innovation systems, and the genesis of regional growth in Europe. Regional Studies, 42, 1, 51–67.
  34. Romer P. M. (1990). Endogenous technological change. Part 2. Journal of Political Economy, 98, 5, S71–S102.
  35. Shu P., Steinwender C. (2019). The impact of trade liberalization on firm productivity and innovation. Innovation Policy and the Economy, 19, 1, 39–68.

Supplementary files

Supplementary Files
Action
1. JATS XML
Download
2. Figure: GDP (PPP) per capita of countries of the world (in dollars) in 2022 and simulated (predicted) values ​​of GDP (PPP) per capita in 2022.

Download (222KB)
Indexing metadata

Copyright (c) 2024 Russian Academy of Sciences