Nomogram to Predict 90-Day All-Cause Mortality in Acute Ischemic Stroke Patients after Endovascular Thrombectomy

Objective:Although Endovascular Thrombectomy (EVT) significantly improves the prognosis of Acute Ischemic Stroke (AIS) patients with large vessel occlusion, the mortality rate remains higher. This study aimed to construct and validate a nomogram for predicting 90-day all-cause mortality in AIS patients with large vessel occlusion and who have undergone EVT.

Methods:AIS patients with large vessel occlusion in the anterior circulation who underwent EVT from May 2017 to December 2022 were included. 430 patients were randomly split into a training group (N=302) and a test group (N=128) for the construction and validation of our nomogram. In the training group, multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to determine the predictors of 90-day all-cause mortality. The C-index, calibration plots, and decision curve analysis were applied to evaluate the nomogram performance.

Results:Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed neurological deterioration during hospitalization, age, baseline National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score, occlusive vessel location, malignant brain edema, and Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte Ratio (NLR) as the independent predictors of 90-day all-cause mortality (all p ≤ 0.039). The C-index of the training and test groups was 0.891 (95%CI 0.848-0.934) and 0.916 (95% CI: 0.865-0.937), respectively, showing the nomogram to be well distinguished. The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test revealed the p-values for both the internal and external verification datasets to be greater than 0.5.

Conclusion:Our nomogram has incorporated relevant clinical and imaging features, including neurological deterioration, age, baseline NIHSS score, occlusive vessel location, malignant brain edema, and NLR ratio, to provide an accurate and reliable prediction of 90-day all-cause mortality in AIS patients undergoing EVT.